Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World — Harvard Kennedy School Challenge (2024)

Practice making forecasts of real-world events over the course of this semester—from politics and international affairs to sports and entertainment. In this challenge, by assigning a probability to events and then updating this probability over time, we hope that you will deepen your appreciation that the world is an uncertain place...and that you will practice skills which will help you to think more clearly about the world in the face of this uncertainty.

This challenge was launched as part of the coursework for a class at the Harvard Kennedy School. The course title is “Thinking Analytically in an Uncertain World” and was inspired by the book "Maxims for Thinking Analytically: The wisdom of legendary Harvard Professor Richard Zeckhauser”. This challenge is open to the public. Students enrolled in the course have been assigned to forecast the questions on this challenge.