Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

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Jul 1, 2025 07:01AM (3 months)

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Forecast on questions generated by participants of Good Judgment's public and private Superforecasting Workshops. For more information about workshops, please see: Superforecasting Workshops, Upcoming Workshops.

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Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

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What will be the effective US tariff rate for all imports for consumption between April 2025 and March 2026?

Will the Rhode Island Department of Transportation (RIDOT) make a tentative award of a contract to replace the Washington Bridge (I-195) before 1 July 2025?

What percentage of global central bank allocated currency reserves be in US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2026?

Before 25 February 2026, will the US accuse Russia of having engaged a US-registered commercial satellite orbiting Earth with a Direct-Ascent Anti-Satellite (DA-ASAT) missile?

Before 1 June 2025, will a NATO member invoke either Article 4 or Article 5 in response to a putative act or acts of sabotage?

Before 1 July 2025, will Russia detonate a nuclear device inside of Russian territory or airspace?

When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?

Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 December 2025?

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2026?

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