Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

Question

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What percentage of global central bank allocated currency reserves be in US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 08:01AM UTC · 19 · 44

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 25 February 2026, will the US accuse Russia of having engaged a US-registered commercial satellite orbiting Earth with a Direct-Ascent Anti-Satellite (DA-ASAT) missile?

Closing Feb 25, 2026 08:01AM UTC · 34 · 61

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 June 2025, will a NATO member invoke either Article 4 or Article 5 in response to a putative act or acts of sabotage?

Closing Jun 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC · 50 · 95

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Before 1 July 2025, will Russia detonate a nuclear device inside of Russian territory or airspace?

Closing Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC · 66 · 109

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?

Closing Jul 20, 2025 07:01AM UTC · 66 · 170

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will South Korea publicly announce that it has or will provide lethal weapons and/or ammunition to Ukraine before 1 April 2025?

Closing Apr 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC · 50 · 124

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 December 2025?

Closing Dec 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC · 56 · 106

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC · 90 · 170

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many of the tech companies among Alphabet (Google), Apple, Meta (Facebook), Microsoft, and NVIDIA will announce a full-time "return to office" policy in the US before 1 January 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC · 53 · 158

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the UK have a confirmed human death from either human to human or animal to human transmission of the Marburg virus, taking place exclusively within the country, before 1 April 2025?

Closing Apr 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC · 59 · 157

Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

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What percentage of global central bank allocated currency reserves be in US dollars in the fourth quarter of 2026?

Before 25 February 2026, will the US accuse Russia of having engaged a US-registered commercial satellite orbiting Earth with a Direct-Ascent Anti-Satellite (DA-ASAT) missile?

Before 1 June 2025, will a NATO member invoke either Article 4 or Article 5 in response to a putative act or acts of sabotage?

Before 1 July 2025, will Russia detonate a nuclear device inside of Russian territory or airspace?

When will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine?

Will South Korea publicly announce that it has or will provide lethal weapons and/or ammunition to Ukraine before 1 April 2025?

Will Taiwan publicly accuse the People's Republic of China of flying a military aircraft over the territory of and/or the territorial waters surrounding the main island of Taiwan without its permission before 1 December 2025?

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2026?

How many of the tech companies among Alphabet (Google), Apple, Meta (Facebook), Microsoft, and NVIDIA will announce a full-time "return to office" policy in the US before 1 January 2025?

Will the UK have a confirmed human death from either human to human or animal to human transmission of the Marburg virus, taking place exclusively within the country, before 1 April 2025?

Superforecasting® Workshops Challenge

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