An important question here is ‘what is the mechanism of unseating the incumbent?’
Whether Kais Saied enacted a coup is debatable. His argument is that he acted within the Tunisian constitution (article 80) that allows for the President to take exceptional measures for 30 days in the event of events that prevent the normal functioning of state institutions.
However, the constitution maintains that the President must consult with the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the Parliament (Parliament must stay in session. A Constitutional Court that would have resolved the validity of the Presidential actions has never been formed, although mandated by Parliament but not ratified by the President.
The triggering of this political crisis appears to domestic driven by the inability of the Administration to deal with the Covid pandemic, institutional paralysis, political corruption, and economic stagnation and a public health collapse.
One view is that this was not a coup d’etat but a collapse of public order, democratic process and a clash between government branches.
Kais Saied did not grab power. He is already the President and a constitutional law professor in a previous life. The armed forces and police appear to be apolitical and are following the Presidents orders.
The constitution does allow for the Assembly of Representatives to vote for the impeachment of the President for grave violations against the constitution. But Parliament has been suspended, cabinet ministers removed, assumed executive power over the judiciary and there is no Constitutional Court to determine what a grave violation might be or if the constitution been violated (bent a little perhaps).
Apart from Turkey, France, EU, African Union and the US have avoided clear statements but encouraged all parties to follow the constitution, avoid violence and without passing comment of the President’s actions.
There is a view that Saudi Arabia and the UAE may influence the direction of the crisis and support Saied.
I will suggest that given the fractious nature and unpopularity of the opposing politicians, the lack of a Constitutional Court, the backing of the Armed Forces and the statements by the General Labour Union (UGTT) to not denounce the Presidents actions (although emphasised the need to adhere to the legitimacy of the Constitution) that Kais Saied is safe for now.
A possible scenario is if he calls for elections and resigns , or he catches Covid, or assassinated.
An important question here is ‘what is the mechanism of unseating the incumbent?’
Whether Kais Saied enacted a coup is debatable. His argument is that he acted within the Tunisian constitution (article 80) that allows for the President to take exceptional measures for 30 days in the event of events that prevent the normal functioning of state institutions.
However, the constitution maintains that the President must consult with the Prime Minister and the Speaker of the Parliament (Parliament must stay in session. A Constitutional Court that would have resolved the validity of the Presidential actions has never been formed, although mandated by Parliament but not ratified by the President.
The triggering of this political crisis appears to domestic driven by the inability of the Administration to deal with the Covid pandemic, institutional paralysis, political corruption, and economic stagnation and a public health collapse.
One view is that this was not a coup d’etat but a collapse of public order, democratic process and a clash between government branches.
Kais Saied did not grab power. He is already the President and a constitutional law professor in a previous life. The armed forces and police appear to be apolitical and are following the Presidents orders.
The constitution does allow for the Assembly of Representatives to vote for the impeachment of the President for grave violations against the constitution. But Parliament has been suspended, cabinet ministers removed, assumed executive power over the judiciary and there is no Constitutional Court to determine what a grave violation might be or if the constitution been violated (bent a little perhaps).
Apart from Turkey, France, EU, African Union and the US have avoided clear statements but encouraged all parties to follow the constitution, avoid violence and without passing comment of the President’s actions.
There is a view that Saudi Arabia and the UAE may influence the direction of the crisis and support Saied.
I will suggest that given the fractious nature and unpopularity of the opposing politicians, the lack of a Constitutional Court, the backing of the Armed Forces and the statements by the General Labour Union (UGTT) to not denounce the Presidents actions (although emphasised the need to adhere to the legitimacy of the Constitution) that Kais Saied is safe for now.
A possible scenario is if he calls for elections and resigns , or he catches Covid, or assassinated.
https://africacenter.org/spotlight/tunisia-crisis-explainer/
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/07/26/kais-saieds-power-grab-in-tunisia/
https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/tunisia/tunisias-leap-unknown
http://arabcenterdc.org/events/tunisias-constitutional-crisis-and-yearning-for-democracy-in-northwest-africa/
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/experts-react-whats-next-after-tunisian-presidents-parliamentary-freeze/
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/tunisian-lawyers-politicians-split-constitutional-crisis-2021-07-26/
https://constitutionnet.org/country/tunisia
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/tunisia-coup-kais-saied-ugtt-labour-union-defends-measures
@Anneinak