Kogo
made their 1st forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022
4%
Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022
95%
No

A really smart forecaster friend who is not forecasting on this one told me, "The EU has zero incentive to push this along in the next few months. The EP made its thoughts abundantly clear in May (https://www.euronews.com/2021/05/20/european-parliament-votes-to-freeze-controversial-eu-china-investment-deal), and that was on top of the EU sanctioning the PRC for the first time since the Reagan Administration (https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2021/03/22/eu-imposes-further-sanctions-over-serious-violations-of-human-rights-around-the-world/). The CAI may be a train on the tracks, but neither side is going to pitch in for coal to keep it moving unless and until there's a major change in the postures of the EU and the PRC as to Xinjiang, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc." I agree.

And I do not foresee a "major change in the postures of the EU and the PRC as to Xinjiang, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc." during the timeframe of this question.

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GJDave
made a comment:

I think the double awareness on the scope sensitivity is worth noting..not only is there a short timeframe, but no incentive to hurry.

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