I know that I am way over the wisdom of my fellow forecasters in this question. However, I am still of the opinion that not all is good for the Russian President:
The Russian President was seen with a blanket over his lap at a military parade in Moscow in stark contrast to the strongman image he has tried to project in the past.
A Tweet described "Vladimir Putin - a blanket on his knees, his cheeks full, a hamster stuffed with steroids - cuts a weak and enfeebled figure as Russian Army rolls past the Kremlin. "No declaration of big war; no call-up; no General Gerasimov. If you listen you can hear the knives being sharpened."
Another Twitter: "So, I watched some of the parades and I watched Putin carefully. Putin didn’t look strong, he didn’t look confident, and he didn’t look happy. He looked old, tired, and fat/puffy. He was sitting for a while and had a blanket on his lap. Not a good look.
This is for what concerns his health and wellbeing. But there are other issues. Sergey Protosenya, Vladislav Avayev, Alexander Tyulakov, Leonid Shulman, and many others (11 I believe), have all been found dead since the war on Ukraine began.
Putin’s favorability ratings jumped to 83 percent in late March, a month into the so-called special military operation. Perhaps more ominously, Russians appear to be informing on one another in growing numbers, condemning friends, neighbors, and colleagues for insufficient support of the war effort. To be sure, an 83 percent approval rating almost certainly overstates Putin’s support. Individuals may understandably hide their true preferences from pollsters, as a culture of paranoia spreads across the country. But we simply don’t know what individual Russians would choose/want if they had an open democracy, rather than a dictatorship where fear is the air one breaths. Like everyone else, they are products of their environment. Authoritarianism corrupts society.
The Ukraine adventure is not going to plan, not even closer. Russia has lost 1,666 vehicles in Ukraine, of which more than 800 have been destroyed during the conflict. Those confirmed destroyed include 111 tanks, 74 armored fighting vehicles, 123 infantry fighting vehicles, and 312 trucks, vehicles, and jeeps.
During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, an unusual number of Russian generals, including the Russian Armed Forces and the National Guard of Russia, have been reported killed in action. As of 23 April 2022, Ukrainian sources reported that ten Russian generals had been killed during the invasion. Ukrainian officials estimated that more than 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed (some sources say the figure could be as many as 25,900); what is most horrifying is that Russian troops do not collect their deaths. The families will never know anything about them, except the generals' families perhaps.
In his May 9 speech, Putin implicitly reassured the Russian population that he would not ask them for a greater commitment to the war effort. Putin likely calculates that he cannot ask the Russian people to mobilize without triggering a destabilizing backlash against his regime.
Putin may be recognizing the growing risks he faces at home and in Ukraine and may be adjusting his objectives, and his desired end state in Ukraine, accordingly.
The Kremlin has already scaled down its objectives in Ukraine (from its initial objective of capturing Kyiv and full regime change) and will likely do so again—or be forced to do so by Ukrainian battlefield successes.
In such a situation we won't be able to see what is brewing until it happens. Therefore I maintain my percentage for now. There are 6 full months to go, and while the war could protract, the EU/USA would like to see the end of it fast to limit the carnage done to Ukraine, and a lot of effort is going to that extent.
[I used a number of sources: The Atlantic, the BBC, The Guardian, DW, ISW]
I know that I am way over the wisdom of my fellow forecasters in this question. However, I am still of the opinion that not all is good for the Russian President:
This is for what concerns his health and wellbeing. But there are other issues. Sergey Protosenya, Vladislav Avayev, Alexander Tyulakov, Leonid Shulman, and many others (11 I believe), have all been found dead since the war on Ukraine began.
Putin’s favorability ratings jumped to 83 percent in late March, a month into the so-called special military operation. Perhaps more ominously, Russians appear to be informing on one another in growing numbers, condemning friends, neighbors, and colleagues for insufficient support of the war effort. To be sure, an 83 percent approval rating almost certainly overstates Putin’s support. Individuals may understandably hide their true preferences from pollsters, as a culture of paranoia spreads across the country. But we simply don’t know what individual Russians would choose/want if they had an open democracy, rather than a dictatorship where fear is the air one breaths. Like everyone else, they are products of their environment. Authoritarianism corrupts society.
The Ukraine adventure is not going to plan, not even closer. Russia has lost 1,666 vehicles in Ukraine, of which more than 800 have been destroyed during the conflict. Those confirmed destroyed include 111 tanks, 74 armored fighting vehicles, 123 infantry fighting vehicles, and 312 trucks, vehicles, and jeeps.
During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, an unusual number of Russian generals, including the Russian Armed Forces and the National Guard of Russia, have been reported killed in action. As of 23 April 2022, Ukrainian sources reported that ten Russian generals had been killed during the invasion. Ukrainian officials estimated that more than 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed (some sources say the figure could be as many as 25,900); what is most horrifying is that Russian troops do not collect their deaths. The families will never know anything about them, except the generals' families perhaps.
In such a situation we won't be able to see what is brewing until it happens. Therefore I maintain my percentage for now. There are 6 full months to go, and while the war could protract, the EU/USA would like to see the end of it fast to limit the carnage done to Ukraine, and a lot of effort is going to that extent.
[I used a number of sources: The Atlantic, the BBC, The Guardian, DW, ISW]
Comment deleted on Jul 25, 2024 01:37PM UTC