I think a test, perhaps the first in a cluster of tests, is likely to occur this coming Friday, Saturday, or perhaps Tuesday. But who knows, it could even be tomorrow. Below, I summarize my argument in one comment:
1. Many analysts and governments have thought that a test would be likely to occur between the start of the CCP Congress and the US midterm elections. This assessment seems to be coming from South Korea, Japan and the US, seems to be very firm, and is presumably based on lots of intelligence. I think Kim would have wanted to wait until after this particular CCP Congress, but also not appear to be waiting. In any case, for whatever reason, he didn't do a test in the period before or during the Party Congress, or right after. And if a test is going to happen before the midterms this coming Tuesday, it will need to happen in the next few days.
4. North Korea is all but warning that it will soon conduct a test. From the AP: "North Korea criticized the United States for expanding joint military exercises with South Korea that it claims are practice for a potential invasion, and it warned of “more powerful follow-up measures” in response."
Many analysts and governments have thought that a test would be likely to occur between the start of the CCP Congress and the US midterm elections.
Correction: the term "likely" is nowhere to be found in what seems to be the single source of this statement:
The [South Korean] National Intelligence Service has said the North could carry out its seventh nuclear test between Oct. 16 and Nov. 7, after the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party and before the U.S. midterm elections. - https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20221016002900315
So, it looks more like a possibility assessment, not a likelihood one.
The White House is braced for a North Korean missile or nuclear test while Joe Biden is on a trip to South Korea and Japan, which begins on Friday [May 20].
The national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, told reporters on Wednesday [May 18]: “Our intelligence does reflect the genuine possibility that there will be either a further missile test, including long-range missile test, or a nuclear test, or frankly both in the days leading into, on or after the president’s trip to the region.
“We are preparing for all contingencies, including the possibility that such a provocation would occur while we are in Korea or in Japan,” Sullivan added.
The last highlighted phrase speaks volumes: it is the job of such services to be prepared for all contingencies, and not to risk being caught off-guard; "could carry out its 7th nuclear test between Oct. 16 and Nov. 7" arguably should be read as "could carry out its 7th nuclear test as soon as between Oct. 16 and Nov. 7, so we'd better be prepared for such an event". There is not any likelihood assessment regarding dates, only a possibility assessment.
It's not a coincidence that the phrase is repeated like a chorus, with every chance:
[Jeffrey Lewis, the director of the East Asia nonproliferation programme at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies] added: “I suspect that North Korea’s schedule has more to do with their own political concerns and technical factors than Biden’s trip.” - The Guardian, May 18, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/18/north-korea-white-house-nuclear-biden
[Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Mariano] Grossi said he did not think a North Korea test was immediately imminent. [...] “We see preparation, we see lots of things, but in terms of degrees of imminency, no,” he said in response to a question. - Al Jazeera, Oct 28, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/28/world-holding-breath-over-possible-n-korea-nuclear-test-iaea
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To clarify: I am not saying that a nuclear test is unlikely - on the contrary, I do think it is more likely than not, in the time frame of the question. I am saying that such near-certainty forecasts are evidently not well justified according to what we really know, and this fact will not change even if a test happens literally tomorrow...
The [senior U.S. administration] official, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said that while the United States had been saying since May that North Korea was preparing to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 2017, it was not clear when it might conduct such a test.
"We have a high level of confidence that they have made preparations," he said. "We believe that they could do this ... I can't tell you 'we think it will be this day for the following reasons,' because we just don't have that level of knowledge."
We might have to work on your base rates and comparison classes. Missile launches:
North Korea is again raising the stakes. Having urged a change in the US denuclearization calculus in the runup to their “end-of-the-year” deadline for US-DPRK negotiations, North Korean authorities are now fiddling around with an ICBM (inter-continental ballistic missile)-shaped bargaining chip after a lukewarm response from the US. The situation presages a possible return to the “fire and fury” days of two years ago and shows the troubling development of a US-North Korea standoff. But North Korea’s various provocations appear to be plans that tie into the long-standing objective of solidifying North Korea’s “strategic position.”
The Hwasong 15 can range the US and the DPRK completed that flight test program some time ago. Close counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and EMP weapons.
The EMP Commission finds that even primitive, low-yield nuclear weapons are such a significant EMP threat that rogue states, like North Korea, or terrorists may well prefer using a nuclear weapon for EMP attack instead of destroying a city.[1] In its 2004 report, the Commission cautioned: “Certain types of relatively low-yield nuclear weapons can be employed to generate potentially catastrophic EMP effects over wide geographic areas, and designs for variants of such weapons may have been illicitly trafficked for a quarter-century.”
In 2004, two Russian generals, both EMP experts, warned the EMP Commission that the design for Russia’s super-EMP warhead, capable of generating high intensity EMP fields of 200,000 volts per meter, was “accidentally” transferred to North Korea, and that due to “brain drain,” Russian scientists were in North Korea, helping with their missile and nuclear weapon programs. South Korean military intelligence told their press that Russian scientists are in North Korea helping develop an EMP nuclear weapon. In 2013, a Chinese military commentator stated North Korea has super-EMP nuclear weapons.[2]https://www.38north.org/2017/06/wgraham060217/
I think a test, perhaps the first in a cluster of tests, is likely to occur this coming Friday, Saturday, or perhaps Tuesday. But who knows, it could even be tomorrow. Below, I summarize my argument in one comment:
1. Many analysts and governments have thought that a test would be likely to occur between the start of the CCP Congress and the US midterm elections. This assessment seems to be coming from South Korea, Japan and the US, seems to be very firm, and is presumably based on lots of intelligence. I think Kim would have wanted to wait until after this particular CCP Congress, but also not appear to be waiting. In any case, for whatever reason, he didn't do a test in the period before or during the Party Congress, or right after. And if a test is going to happen before the midterms this coming Tuesday, it will need to happen in the next few days.
2. “All six [previous nuclear tests] were conducted during morning time, on a day that had crisp and bright weather”
https://www.nknews.org/2022/07/rok-military-chief-says-north-korean-nuclear-test-unlikely-during-monsoon-season/
The weather forecast for Punggye-ri calls for sunny weather this Friday, Saturday and Tuesday. The only sunny day since the CCP Congress ended was 2 days after it ended.
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=Punggye-ri+weather+forecast
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/5f6b97ffd0a55ad0011d25c0d749bff57d0fd165a3c9fcfbe05070cd04aa91a0#detailIndex5
3. "North Korea's previous six nuclear tests were "preceded by an escalating series of missile tests.""
4. North Korea is all but warning that it will soon conduct a test. From the AP: "North Korea criticized the United States for expanding joint military exercises with South Korea that it claims are practice for a potential invasion, and it warned of “more powerful follow-up measures” in response."https://www.voanews.com/a/experts-north-korea-s-expected-nuclear-missile-test-likely-to-involve-miniature-warheads-/6805278.html
North Korea has launched at least 25 missiles in the past day or so.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/north-koreas-missile-crossed-northern-limit-line
@probahilliby found this nice graph: https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1587751510859038721
I'd call this "an escalating series of missile tests."
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1587343299899260936
5. There has also been some speculation that North Korea may conduct more than one nuclear test, in a cluster of tests.
https://twitter.com/TheKoreaHerald/status/1584085587233243136
Correction: the term "likely" is nowhere to be found in what seems to be the single source of this statement:
So, it looks more like a possibility assessment, not a likelihood one.
Correct, as other assessments have been in the past; here is The Guardian from May 18 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/18/north-korea-white-house-nuclear-biden ):
The last highlighted phrase speaks volumes: it is the job of such services to be prepared for all contingencies, and not to risk being caught off-guard; "could carry out its 7th nuclear test between Oct. 16 and Nov. 7" arguably should be read as "could carry out its 7th nuclear test as soon as between Oct. 16 and Nov. 7, so we'd better be prepared for such an event". There is not any likelihood assessment regarding dates, only a possibility assessment.
It's not a coincidence that the phrase is repeated like a chorus, with every chance:
Even the last barrage of missile launches by the DPRK do not come in a void: they are the response to the continuing large-scale US-ROK joint drills, which obviously could not go unanswered: https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korea-says-us-south-korea-drills-can-no-longer-be-tolerated-2022-11-01/
---
To clarify: I am not saying that a nuclear test is unlikely - on the contrary, I do think it is more likely than not, in the time frame of the question. I am saying that such near-certainty forecasts are evidently not well justified according to what we really know, and this fact will not change even if a test happens literally tomorrow...
UPDATE - Nov 4 (since it is now buried under other comments above: https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1539066 )
Reuters exclusive, Nov 4, https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-us-says-china-russia-have-leverage-stop-north-korea-nuclear-test-2022-11-03/ :
@belikewater
We might have to work on your base rates and comparison classes. Missile launches:
North Korea is again raising the stakes. Having urged a change in the US denuclearization calculus in the runup to their “end-of-the-year” deadline for US-DPRK negotiations, North Korean authorities are now fiddling around with an ICBM (inter-continental ballistic missile)-shaped bargaining chip after a lukewarm response from the US. The situation presages a possible return to the “fire and fury” days of two years ago and shows the troubling development of a US-North Korea standoff. But North Korea’s various provocations appear to be plans that tie into the long-standing objective of solidifying North Korea’s “strategic position.”
https://www.dailynk.com/english/north-korea-moving-closer-achieving-strategic-position/
I don't get any correlation to nuke tests. A miniaturized nuke is the next logical step.
Week 1: Introduction - What Are Nuclear Weapons and Why Were They Developed?
https://online.stanford.edu/courses/fsi-y0002-living-nuclear-brink-yesterday-and-today
The Hwasong 15 can range the US and the DPRK completed that flight test program some time ago. Close counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and EMP weapons.
The EMP Commission finds that even primitive, low-yield nuclear weapons are such a significant EMP threat that rogue states, like North Korea, or terrorists may well prefer using a nuclear weapon for EMP attack instead of destroying a city.[1] In its 2004 report, the Commission cautioned: “Certain types of relatively low-yield nuclear weapons can be employed to generate potentially catastrophic EMP effects over wide geographic areas, and designs for variants of such weapons may have been illicitly trafficked for a quarter-century.”
No threat to the US, no cookie. I'm expecting something in the 20-40kt range. The US has a fragile infrastructure. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
In 2004, two Russian generals, both EMP experts, warned the EMP Commission that the design for Russia’s super-EMP warhead, capable of generating high intensity EMP fields of 200,000 volts per meter, was “accidentally” transferred to North Korea, and that due to “brain drain,” Russian scientists were in North Korea, helping with their missile and nuclear weapon programs. South Korean military intelligence told their press that Russian scientists are in North Korea helping develop an EMP nuclear weapon. In 2013, a Chinese military commentator stated North Korea has super-EMP nuclear weapons.[2]https://www.38north.org/2017/06/wgraham060217/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJG-rXBbmCc