It seems that we have gotten through Friday morning without a nuclear test. Let's see how the next few days go. The US and South Korea have extended military exercises through Saturday, so perhaps Kim might not start a test until after then.
The messages coming out of the US and South Korea seem to include the following:
1. North Korea has completed preparations for a test. Everyone seems to generally agree on this point.
2. We don't know whether North Korea will conduct a test. Possible translations: * We really don't know whether NK will conduct a test. (Statement = face value.) * We are all but certain Kim will conduct a test, but we don't want to say that because we want to give Kim the opportunity to change his mind without losing face, or we don't want to reveal how much we know, or whatever. (We saw similar rhetoric about Putin in the lead-up to his invasion of Ukraine.) * We think a test is likely but we're not sure because NK is a black box.
3. We don't know exactly when a test will be. Possible translations: * We don't know when one will be. (Statement = face value.) * We know but we don't want to say, because we want to give Kim the opportunity to change his mind without losing face, and/or because we don't want to reveal how much we know and compromise sources and methods, and/or for some other reason. * We have a pretty good idea of some likely dates or date ranges and times, but we don't want to talk about why we think what we do.
4. The US wants China and Russia to try to dissuade NK from doing another test. Possible translations: * Why not? You've got to at least ask. (Statement = face value, nothing more or less.) * We're desperate. We know they're about to do a test, you know they're about to do a test, and none of us wants nuclear proliferation, so will you other countries please try (harder) to stop this?
From Reuters: "The United States believes China and Russia have leverage they can use to persuade North Korea not to resume nuclear bomb testing, a senior U.S. administration official said on Thursday.
The official, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said that while the United States had been saying since May that North Korea was preparing to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 2017, it was not clear when it might conduct such a test.
"We have a high level of confidence that they have made preparations," he said. "We believe that they could do this ... I can't tell you 'we think it will be this day for the following reasons,' because we just don't have that level of knowledge."
Washington wanted to see Russia and China do what they could to dissuade Pyongyang.
The official, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said that while the United States had been saying since May that North Korea was preparing to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 2017, it was not clear when it might conduct such a test.
"We have a high level of confidence that they have made preparations," he said. "We believe that they could do this ... I can't tell you 'we think it will be this day for the following reasons,' because we just don't have that level of knowledge."
What the heck is this alleged anonymous "official" talking about? They don't know? It is "not clear when"? Really? So what? Can't they just give us a date? I mean, obviously you don't have that level of knowledge either, but this did not stop you from predicting, with admittedly admirable confidence and precision, that you expect a test within the next 2-5 hours (6 hours ago)...
Where is this world (and the US) heading for, with such irresponsible officials...? :(
My advice: stick to your 99% (I find it very encouraging that you didn't feel necessary to move by a single point after this new information), and leave the "we don't know exactly" to obvious losers, like the said official and myself: https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1538632
I'm too lazy to look it up, but there is some minimum yield (depending on geology) needed to seismically "detect" a test. If in fact the DPRK is trying to verify some small design(s), might they choose something other than lighting the fuze?
Everyone who cares and has been paying attention knows the DPRK is an unacknowledged nulcear power.
@dowser I would not underestimate seismic and other detection capabilities for detecting a nuclear test in North Korea. Substantial efforts at many national laboratories around the world and other large technical efforts are devoted to this goal. Also, a lower limit of detection, if there is one, would not be publicly available.
@dowser This JASONs report looks at a different question; they're discussing how to collect data from subcritical experiments.
I'm not sure what information you're looking at from the organizations you list. All I'm saying is that actual limits of detection of anything are typically closely guarded secrets.
It seems that we have gotten through Friday morning without a nuclear test. Let's see how the next few days go. The US and South Korea have extended military exercises through Saturday, so perhaps Kim might not start a test until after then.
The messages coming out of the US and South Korea seem to include the following:
1. North Korea has completed preparations for a test. Everyone seems to generally agree on this point.
2. We don't know whether North Korea will conduct a test. Possible translations:
* We really don't know whether NK will conduct a test. (Statement = face value.)
* We are all but certain Kim will conduct a test, but we don't want to say that because we want to give Kim the opportunity to change his mind without losing face, or we don't want to reveal how much we know, or whatever. (We saw similar rhetoric about Putin in the lead-up to his invasion of Ukraine.)
* We think a test is likely but we're not sure because NK is a black box.
3. We don't know exactly when a test will be. Possible translations:
* We don't know when one will be. (Statement = face value.)
* We know but we don't want to say, because we want to give Kim the opportunity to change his mind without losing face, and/or because we don't want to reveal how much we know and compromise sources and methods, and/or for some other reason.
* We have a pretty good idea of some likely dates or date ranges and times, but we don't want to talk about why we think what we do.
4. The US wants China and Russia to try to dissuade NK from doing another test. Possible translations:
* Why not? You've got to at least ask. (Statement = face value, nothing more or less.)
* We're desperate. We know they're about to do a test, you know they're about to do a test, and none of us wants nuclear proliferation, so will you other countries please try (harder) to stop this?
Plus, check out this graph of NK missile launches vs year:
https://twitter.com/Missile_Defense/status/1587858278880534531
From Reuters:
"The United States believes China and Russia have leverage they can use to persuade North Korea not to resume nuclear bomb testing, a senior U.S. administration official said on Thursday.
The official, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said that while the United States had been saying since May that North Korea was preparing to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 2017, it was not clear when it might conduct such a test.
"We have a high level of confidence that they have made preparations," he said. "We believe that they could do this ... I can't tell you 'we think it will be this day for the following reasons,' because we just don't have that level of knowledge."
Washington wanted to see Russia and China do what they could to dissuade Pyongyang.
"We do think that they (North Korea) are making calculations about the degree of receptivity for others in the region, I think, particularly Russia and China. And I think that the Russian and Chinese attitudes do have influence with them.""
https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-us-says-china-russia-have-leverage-stop-north-korea-nuclear-test-2022-11-03/
What the heck is this alleged anonymous "official" talking about? They don't know? It is "not clear when"? Really? So what? Can't they just give us a date? I mean, obviously you don't have that level of knowledge either, but this did not stop you from predicting, with admittedly admirable confidence and precision, that you expect a test within the next 2-5 hours (6 hours ago)...
Where is this world (and the US) heading for, with such irresponsible officials...? :(
My advice: stick to your 99% (I find it very encouraging that you didn't feel necessary to move by a single point after this new information), and leave the "we don't know exactly" to obvious losers, like the said official and myself: https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1538632
I'm too lazy to look it up, but there is some minimum yield (depending on geology) needed to seismically "detect" a test. If in fact the DPRK is trying to verify some small design(s), might they choose something other than lighting the fuze?
Everyone who cares and has been paying attention knows the DPRK is an unacknowledged nulcear power.
FWIW https://fas.org/blogs/secrecy/2017/03/jason-subcritical/
Actually the IAEA, CRS, BofAS, CSIS, etc actually have information about what may be detected.
@dowser This JASONs report looks at a different question; they're discussing how to collect data from subcritical experiments.
I'm not sure what information you're looking at from the organizations you list. All I'm saying is that actual limits of detection of anything are typically closely guarded secrets.