The few forecasts so far on this question are quite divergent: 0%, 0%, 1%, 70%, 75%.
I think it's useful to look back at how long previous prime ministers stayed in office. Going back to Romano Prodi, who took office on May 17, 2006, here are the numbers: name, duration Romano Prodi, 1 yr 357 d Silvio Berlusconi, 3 yrs 192 d Mario Monti, 1 yr 163 d Enrico Letta, 300 d Matteo Renzi, 2 yr 294 d Paolo Gentiloni, 1 yr 171 d Giuseppe Conte, 2 yr 257 d Mario Draghi, 1 yr 251 d Giorgia Meloni, 62 d so far, since taking office Oct 22, 2022. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Italy
Only 1 out of the 8 prime ministers immediately before Meloni served less than 1 year, and Oct 1, 2023 would be just under 1 year. Looking at nothing else, I'd put the chance that she'd be out of office before Oct 1, 2023 at ~13%. But Meloni came in with a clear voter mandate, so I think that makes her chances of staying >1 year even greater. That said, she is PM during unusually difficult times, with unusually high inflation, and that would be a force that could shorten her tenure. However, difficult times often push politics to the right (which is probably how she got where she is now), and she represents the right, so perhaps difficult times won't hurt her. Also, any scandal could push her out, but I haven't heard of any such possibilities.
So, I think the chance she'll still be PM on Oct 1, 2023 is really high.
Does anyone know what kind of economic policies she has? Is she viewed as someone that can help the economy? The talk of the town is about recession. And to me, if this kind of situation grows and she doesn't have a proper grasp on the economy, she may encounter more pressure to be "ousted."
@probahilliby The most controversial economic plans I've heard are a plan to slash unemployment benefits and a move to raise the state cap on cash transactions, something that will primarily benefit criminals, money launderers and recipients of large bribes. Neither is a particularly good idea, but not likely enough to crash a government either.
Her broader plans seem almost a carbon copy of Liz Truss' plans for the UK, but importantly, without the massive tax cuts. The deficit will go up to pay for short term sticking plasters to ease the burden of inflation. But in a controlled way that won't crash the economy as happened in the UK.
I think a list of previous PMs' time in the office is unrealistic.
Romano Prodi, 1 yr 357 d
Silvio Berlusconi, 3 yrs 192 d
Mario Monti, 1 yr 163 d--his government was technocratic. The President appointed him to transition during the crises. He had to introduce unappetizing reforms that the previous government refused. As soon as that was done, they made him fall.
Enrico Letta, 300 d--Same here! Letta government was a presidential appointee because the leading party refused to join a coalition with the nascent M5S. The head of the party resigned, and Renzi became head of the party. He saw the opportunity and withdrew his support to Letta to become PM himself.
Matteo Renzi, 2 yr 294 d
Paolo Gentiloni, 1 yr 171 d--Paolo Gentiloni just took over after Renzi resigned over a referendum (a Cameroon-style thing). Gentiloni governed well and was missed.
Giuseppe Conte, 2 yr 257 d
Mario Draghi, 1 yr 251 d--Again, this was a technocratic government appointed by the President. He was the best Italy could hope for. Meloni, Berlusconi, Conte (M5S), and Salvini (Lega) withdrew their support; probably following polls that gave them high chances. Meloni was the one with the best numbers.
Therefore the highlighted names do not count as "governments." they were meant not to last too long.
Does anyone know what kind of economic policies she has? Is she viewed as someone that can help the economy? The talk of the town is about recession.
She has NONE! she understands nothing; she doesn't have the education to understand economics, and I must say, she doesn't have the will to learn (so far, at least), and yes, the talk of the town is about recession, even if it is used politically because the numbers show that Italy is better off than the UK, or even Germany. Remember that the EU is giving Italy a lot of money in tranches. Meloni doesn't yet understand that she must behave in a certain way if she still wants that money. It doesn't look like that yet.
a move to raise the state cap on cash transactions, something that will primarily benefit criminals, money launderers and recipients of large bribes.
This ridiculous proposal was withdrawn recently, which is good, but what is not good is a PM so influenced by others and so fickled. Meloni looks more lost on the job by the day!
@probahilliby yeah, my forecast was too high. Thanks for pointing it out. I haven't been keeping up with the news the past few weeks because I've been occupied. What I last read about Meloni's plans was that financial markets weren't happy with them. However, her government seems to have moderated their plans, perhaps after seeing what happened to Liz Truss.
@sevedb Thanks so much for your comment and sharing your far greater insights about Italy. Purely looking at things historically, then, Meloni's chances of staying in power in the forecast period should be even higher. The biggest questions for me, then, are how economic and other considerations will affect people's confidence in her, and to what extent her incompetence will matter with respect to this question. Is she useful to powerful people who want her to stay in power? In the end, despite his incompetence, Trump was extremely useful to right-wing donors in the US in the short term; they got what they wanted (tax cuts, eliminating government regulations, many conservative federal judges appointed, etc.), while Trump created endless distractions for voters. What do different groups expect Meloni to deliver, and can she achieve those goals?
The few forecasts so far on this question are quite divergent: 0%, 0%, 1%, 70%, 75%.
I think it's useful to look back at how long previous prime ministers stayed in office. Going back to Romano Prodi, who took office on May 17, 2006, here are the numbers:
name, duration
Romano Prodi, 1 yr 357 d
Silvio Berlusconi, 3 yrs 192 d
Mario Monti, 1 yr 163 d
Enrico Letta, 300 d
Matteo Renzi, 2 yr 294 d
Paolo Gentiloni, 1 yr 171 d
Giuseppe Conte, 2 yr 257 d
Mario Draghi, 1 yr 251 d
Giorgia Meloni, 62 d so far, since taking office Oct 22, 2022.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Italy
Only 1 out of the 8 prime ministers immediately before Meloni served less than 1 year, and Oct 1, 2023 would be just under 1 year. Looking at nothing else, I'd put the chance that she'd be out of office before Oct 1, 2023 at ~13%. But Meloni came in with a clear voter mandate, so I think that makes her chances of staying >1 year even greater. That said, she is PM during unusually difficult times, with unusually high inflation, and that would be a force that could shorten her tenure. However, difficult times often push politics to the right (which is probably how she got where she is now), and she represents the right, so perhaps difficult times won't hurt her. Also, any scandal could push her out, but I haven't heard of any such possibilities.
So, I think the chance she'll still be PM on Oct 1, 2023 is really high.
@belikewater Agreed. But kind of curious why @tabhuth is so high on this one.
Does anyone know what kind of economic policies she has? Is she viewed as someone that can help the economy? The talk of the town is about recession. And to me, if this kind of situation grows and she doesn't have a proper grasp on the economy, she may encounter more pressure to be "ousted."
@probahilliby The most controversial economic plans I've heard are a plan to slash unemployment benefits and a move to raise the state cap on cash transactions, something that will primarily benefit criminals, money launderers and recipients of large bribes. Neither is a particularly good idea, but not likely enough to crash a government either.
Her broader plans seem almost a carbon copy of Liz Truss' plans for the UK, but importantly, without the massive tax cuts. The deficit will go up to pay for short term sticking plasters to ease the burden of inflation. But in a controlled way that won't crash the economy as happened in the UK.
https://www.zawya.com/en/world/uk-and-europe/italys-meloni-to-unveil-budget-with-308bln-to-lift-economy-w8eiiwwu
@belikewater
I think a list of previous PMs' time in the office is unrealistic.
Romano Prodi, 1 yr 357 d
Silvio Berlusconi, 3 yrs 192 d
Mario Monti, 1 yr 163 d--his government was technocratic. The President appointed him to transition during the crises. He had to introduce unappetizing reforms that the previous government refused. As soon as that was done, they made him fall.
Enrico Letta, 300 d--Same here! Letta government was a presidential appointee because the leading party refused to join a coalition with the nascent M5S. The head of the party resigned, and Renzi became head of the party. He saw the opportunity and withdrew his support to Letta to become PM himself.
Matteo Renzi, 2 yr 294 d
Paolo Gentiloni, 1 yr 171 d--Paolo Gentiloni just took over after Renzi resigned over a referendum (a Cameroon-style thing). Gentiloni governed well and was missed.
Giuseppe Conte, 2 yr 257 d
Mario Draghi, 1 yr 251 d--Again, this was a technocratic government appointed by the President. He was the best Italy could hope for. Meloni, Berlusconi, Conte (M5S), and Salvini (Lega) withdrew their support; probably following polls that gave them high chances. Meloni was the one with the best numbers.
Therefore the highlighted names do not count as "governments." they were meant not to last too long.
@probahilliby
She has NONE! she understands nothing; she doesn't have the education to understand economics, and I must say, she doesn't have the will to learn (so far, at least), and yes, the talk of the town is about recession, even if it is used politically because the numbers show that Italy is better off than the UK, or even Germany. Remember that the EU is giving Italy a lot of money in tranches. Meloni doesn't yet understand that she must behave in a certain way if she still wants that money. It doesn't look like that yet.
@cosaib
This ridiculous proposal was withdrawn recently, which is good, but what is not good is a PM so influenced by others and so fickled. Meloni looks more lost on the job by the day!