I looked at a few data points for this question across various betting markets:
9% on Polymarket. Though I believe at this point (as of 15/03), this percentage is unreliable because the question is relatively new with a volume of $3121. Also the question asks for Trump-Xi-Putin meeting.. which adds another layer of uncertainty.
Manifold has similar questions as well. One of them asks for the meeting by the end of 2025 and has a prediction of 87%. The other one is also the same but differently worded. It has a prediction of 65%. Not really sure why the discrepancy exists for the same question! (Maybe the number of traders in each question..)
Then I proceeded to look wether Trump met Xi in his first term. Turns out he did and on a number of occassions!
April 6–7, 2017: President Trump hosted President Xi at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. This summit marked their first face-to-face meeting, during which they discussed various bilateral and international issues. The Guardian.
November 8–10, 2017: President Trump made a state visit to China, where he met with President Xi in Beijing. Archives
December 1, 2018: The two leaders met on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina, to discuss trade tensions and agreed to a temporary truce in the escalating trade war. Wikipedia
So, historically Trump did meet Xi before July after getting elected. Also, Senator Steve Daines, a close ally of President Trump, is seeking to be appointed as a special envoy to China. His goal is to facilitate a meeting with President Xi, potentially paving the way for a summit between the two leaders. Senator Daines is scheduled to attend the China Development Forum, a significant event that attracts high-level executives from the U.S., Europe, and Japan. FinancialTimes
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Why might you be wrong?
The U.S. has recently raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%, prompting China to retaliate with duties on U.S. agricultural products. This escalating trade war could create a contentious environment, making diplomatic engagements less feasible.
Also, the U.S.'s recent overtures toward Russia have raised concerns in Beijing about potential shifts in alliances. FinancialTimes
Why do you think you're right? (optional)
I looked at a few data points for this question across various betting markets:
Then I proceeded to look wether Trump met Xi in his first term. Turns out he did and on a number of occassions!
So, historically Trump did meet Xi before July after getting elected. Also, Senator Steve Daines, a close ally of President Trump, is seeking to be appointed as a special envoy to China. His goal is to facilitate a meeting with President Xi, potentially paving the way for a summit between the two leaders. Senator Daines is scheduled to attend the China Development Forum, a significant event that attracts high-level executives from the U.S., Europe, and Japan. FinancialTimes
Why might you be wrong?
The U.S. has recently raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%, prompting China to retaliate with duties on U.S. agricultural products. This escalating trade war could create a contentious environment, making diplomatic engagements less feasible.
Also, the U.S.'s recent overtures toward Russia have raised concerns in Beijing about potential shifts in alliances. FinancialTimes