I am choosing to divide my estimates amongst these 4 candidates owing to the opinions on the above mentioned platforms.
The following news article is also insightful: Reuters
March 17 (Reuters) - A hard-right candidate is seen leading in the first round of Romania's presidential election rerun in May, according to a survey on Monday, in a vote that will determine whether Bucharest keeps to its pro-European course of recent years.
However, Bucharest mayor Dan, running as an independent, would likely win the decisive second round due to his broad appeal across various voter demographics, according to the survey, though many of those canvassed remained undecided.
A point to note here is Simion's stance on foreign policy, particularly his opposition to providing military aid to Ukraine, contrasts with Romania's current pro-European and NATO-aligned direction. This divergence could influence voter sentiment, especially among those prioritizing Romania's commitments to the EU and NATO. Simion’s foreign policy stance might limit his second-round viability, especially among: Urban voters, centrists wary of shifting too far right geopolitically.
On the other hand, I think Dan's position as an independent and Bucharest mayor gives him urban support, which could have higher turnout.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Multiple reasons actually:
Basing my opinion on betting market data and opinion polls. Do not know much about Romanian politics.
Since my forecast has been shaped by opinion polls - voter turnouts, shifts in undecided voters could change the outcome.
Why do you think you're right? (optional)
Some data points across various websites:
I am choosing to divide my estimates amongst these 4 candidates owing to the opinions on the above mentioned platforms.
The following news article is also insightful: Reuters
A point to note here is Simion's stance on foreign policy, particularly his opposition to providing military aid to Ukraine, contrasts with Romania's current pro-European and NATO-aligned direction. This divergence could influence voter sentiment, especially among those prioritizing Romania's commitments to the EU and NATO. Simion’s foreign policy stance might limit his second-round viability, especially among: Urban voters, centrists wary of shifting too far right geopolitically.
On the other hand, I think Dan's position as an independent and Bucharest mayor gives him urban support, which could have higher turnout.
Why might you be wrong?
Multiple reasons actually: