Seems like the chat leaks caused quite the spur :).
To me (at least as of now) this appears to be a “short fuse” scandal: one that will either lead to an immediate resignation… or quietly fade from public consciousness.
Also, there are relevant questions on Polymarket already!!
Who will leave Trump Administration in 2025? (Polymarket) - 32% chance of Mike Waltz doing so. Though I have to say the question is new and the volume is too low to be reliable in my opinion.
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? (Polymarket) - 14% with a volume of $40,957.
I also found the following on Twitter by a person named Garrett Haake:
In a brief interview, @POTUS tells me he still has confidence in @MikeWaltz47 - after @TheAtlantic Signal story yesterday: "Michael Waltz has learned a lesson, and he's a good man."
Trump seems to be defending him and not really speaking against him too much. This framing could suggest he is trying to avoid firing people he still values unless media pressure or legal risks escalate.
Waltz has taken full responsibility for the leak, calling it “embarrassing,” yet also deflected blame onto the Atlantic editor, calling him “vile” and claiming confusion about how he was added. NYPost
National security adviser Mike Waltz takes ‘full responsibility’ for ‘embarrassing’ Signal leak — claims he’s unaware how ‘vile’ Atlantic editor’s info got ‘sucked into’ his phone.
I think the most probable outcome is scapegoating the Atlantic editor and reframing the story as a media ethics breach, not a national security one. :)
Also, new tariffs are about to go into effect on April 2nd which will dominate the headlines. Unless a deeper operational failure is revealed — e.g., the Houthis gaining advantage due to the leak - this will likely dissolve into the fog of headlines.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
This is an on going development. If there is enough media attention (which I think it is getting) and pressure from other leaders asking for strict action, then he may actually leave the office. Also, the severity of the breach cannot be overlooked. So some things to watch out for:
Shift in language from Trump or allies (“good man” to “reckless” or “distraction”).
Leaked military consequences (troop repositioning, operational failures). Which I am not sure will happen because Trump has claimed that the operation against the Houthis was a success.
Why do you think you're right? (optional)
Seems like the chat leaks caused quite the spur :).
To me (at least as of now) this appears to be a “short fuse” scandal: one that will either lead to an immediate resignation… or quietly fade from public consciousness.
Also, there are relevant questions on Polymarket already!!
I also found the following on Twitter by a person named Garrett Haake:
Trump seems to be defending him and not really speaking against him too much. This framing could suggest he is trying to avoid firing people he still values unless media pressure or legal risks escalate.
Waltz has taken full responsibility for the leak, calling it “embarrassing,” yet also deflected blame onto the Atlantic editor, calling him “vile” and claiming confusion about how he was added. NYPost
I think the most probable outcome is scapegoating the Atlantic editor and reframing the story as a media ethics breach, not a national security one. :)
Also, new tariffs are about to go into effect on April 2nd which will dominate the headlines. Unless a deeper operational failure is revealed — e.g., the Houthis gaining advantage due to the leak - this will likely dissolve into the fog of headlines.
Why might you be wrong?
This is an on going development. If there is enough media attention (which I think it is getting) and pressure from other leaders asking for strict action, then he may actually leave the office. Also, the severity of the breach cannot be overlooked. So some things to watch out for: