Okay, so by looking at the average attendance values, I could make the following conclusions:
1997–2000: Initial boom, the hype was the highest during these years.
2001–2017: Gradual decline, then somewhat stable numbers. Around 7000-8000.
2018–2019: Pre-pandemic dip. Around 6600.
2020–2021: COVID crash. 2020 had no attendance and for 2021 the attendance was low due to COVID protocols. SkyNews
2022–2023: Recovery.
2024 was unprecedented with a 48.26% increase compared to 2023.
Now, the current context... the introduction of the Golden State Valkyries in 2025 is expected to draw significant local interest. Notably, the Valkyries have already sold 10,000 season tickets, indicating strong fan engagement. Reuters
Teams are moving games to larger arenas to accommodate growing interest. The Chicago Sky, for example, will host two games against the Indiana Fever at the United Center, which seats over 20,000 double the capacity of their usual venue. NYPost
Assuming a modest shift of ±2–5%, we land in this range:
+5% growth: 9,807 × 1.05 = 10,297
−5% dip: 9,807 × 0.95 = 9,316
For now, I think the numbers will plateau or see a modest fluctuation. The 2024 surge was likely driven by:
The Caitlin Clark effect
A post-COVID bounce
Reaching or exceeding the 1998-1999 highs (~10,864 avg) would require another leap forward and while not impossible, it feels unlikely without another hype driven catalyst.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I’m not a WNBA insider and don’t have access to local sentiment or fanbase dynamics. My forecast is based on historical data, news reports (like the Valkyries’ 10,000 season ticket sales), and a conservative read of post surge trends.
Assumption: 2024’s 48% spike was exceptional. 2025 will likely plateau or shift slightly (±2–5%). If I’m wrong:
Too low: Another breakout star, sustained hype, or big arena sellouts drive further growth.
Too high: 2024 was a temporary spike, and momentum cools.
Why do you think you're right? (optional)
Now, the current context... the introduction of the Golden State Valkyries in 2025 is expected to draw significant local interest. Notably, the Valkyries have already sold 10,000 season tickets, indicating strong fan engagement. Reuters
Teams are moving games to larger arenas to accommodate growing interest. The Chicago Sky, for example, will host two games against the Indiana Fever at the United Center, which seats over 20,000 double the capacity of their usual venue. NYPost
Assuming a modest shift of ±2–5%, we land in this range:
For now, I think the numbers will plateau or see a modest fluctuation. The 2024 surge was likely driven by:
Reaching or exceeding the 1998-1999 highs (~10,864 avg) would require another leap forward and while not impossible, it feels unlikely without another hype driven catalyst.
Why might you be wrong?
I’m not a WNBA insider and don’t have access to local sentiment or fanbase dynamics. My forecast is based on historical data, news reports (like the Valkyries’ 10,000 season ticket sales), and a conservative read of post surge trends.
Assumption: 2024’s 48% spike was exceptional. 2025 will likely plateau or shift slightly (±2–5%). If I’m wrong: