Was just wondering about this question and I thought: Why not have a look at the accuracy of IMF's predictions in the past. Though this is too late for the question as of now, thought it would be interesting!
Economic outlooks for real GDP growth are typically reliable, but of course they can fail to pick up on something major that’s about to happen, or underestimate the impact of a big event.
The following is according to a paper publishes in ScienceDirect:
Only 57% of the official final GDP growth data lie within 1% of the estimated GDP growth data, which implies EKPC’s nowcast assessments are contaminated by errors in the final data.
thanks for the links, very interesting especially the second one. I just wanted to add that the IMF, as both a crisis lender and forecaster, carefully balances transparency with its role in maintaining economic stability across 189 member countries. While this study challenges previous claims of systematic optimism in IMF forecasts, it’s important to consider the Fund’s cautious communication strategy. Overestimating recoveries may support investor confidence, while underestimating slow growth in LICs prevents over-promising.
The study’s finding that shorter nowcast horizons do not improve accuracy reflects the complexity of crisis forecasting. However, IMF projections are not purely analytical—they serve diplomatic and policy functions. Many concerns are conveyed privately to governments rather than through public forecasts, ensuring that sensitive economic issues are addressed in a more effective manner.
Was just wondering about this question and I thought: Why not have a look at the accuracy of IMF's predictions in the past. Though this is too late for the question as of now, thought it would be interesting!
The following is from an article by Quartz:
The following is according to a paper publishes in ScienceDirect:
@sai_39
thanks for the links, very interesting especially the second one. I just wanted to add that the IMF, as both a crisis lender and forecaster, carefully balances transparency with its role in maintaining economic stability across 189 member countries. While this study challenges previous claims of systematic optimism in IMF forecasts, it’s important to consider the Fund’s cautious communication strategy. Overestimating recoveries may support investor confidence, while underestimating slow growth in LICs prevents over-promising.
The study’s finding that shorter nowcast horizons do not improve accuracy reflects the complexity of crisis forecasting. However, IMF projections are not purely analytical—they serve diplomatic and policy functions. Many concerns are conveyed privately to governments rather than through public forecasts, ensuring that sensitive economic issues are addressed in a more effective manner.