The question is stated as delivery of a "S-300 or S-400 missile system." A "system" requires all the major operational components to be delivered (search radar, targeting radar, missile launcher, command post, etc.). Regarding hiding the system, while I agree that generally you don't want to give away the exact location of your military assets, it is important to credibly signal your enemies if you expect to deter them. Most of the Iranian comments to this point are probably inward directed, to create a sense of strength in the aftermath of the nuclear deal with the West. Outward directed statements (to Israel) will come when the system is actually functioning.
@ravel@kahneman Please don't take that "superforecaster [TM] label too seriously. As best as I can tell, reading the published accounts of GJP in refereed publications, the two primary factors in winning this designation were putting in time and getting some sort of feedback from others who put in time. All the rest, IMHO, is ex post facto analysis. I recall that it was after I'd been in the top 1% for some time that the Powers That Be queried me about openmindedness etc. How do we know the openmindedness was a cause of success, a result of striving for success and getting Brier score feedback, or both? I'm hoping the next four years of planned research under CREATE could help illuminate this.
Are any of you wondering why I added @kahneman here? Somebody signed up under the name Daniel Kahneman. Is that perhaps the Daniel Kahneman of Nobel Prize fame? He has written eloquently about his struggles as a young psychologist with the false efficacy syndrome. That's what has me wondering about the superforecaster designation. Yeah, I got one, so how fun to think I'm special. What if I'm not? What if anyone with similar education and intelligence, of whom there must be many millions, could do as well or better under the right conditions? What if a billion people, or more, have this potential? Inquiring minds want to know.
@000 last night, one of my comments had the "upvoted" button on it, suggesting that I had upvoted myself, but I can't seem to make a habit of it, yet...time to play with cookies, and maybe some well-placed semicolons...
@cmeinel, well, if you look at the first Tetlock training video under Training, you will see that he begins his series by thanking Daniel Kahneman for all their collaboration, and Daniel Kahneman introduces himself as a psychologist, as they go around the table, along with Robert Axelrod and others, several of whom are "players" here, facilitating and doing what psychologists and analysts do, probe the rats. :)
http://edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-i
@Heffalump Re: this long reported, still unfixed bug whereby we could screw up other people's comments: consider databases of SQL injection attacks, for purposes of beta testing only, of course.
Bottom line: in their final year, using the market prediction approach, they were achieving results comparable to GJP4 but without this business of identifying superduperforecasters and putting them/us into special groups to share info, analyses.
I think it's bad enough that it's an open secret that several/many of us scrape the site with regularity. I'm not going to do basic script-kiddie/JS/SQL hacking without some sort of mandate.
Reaffirming my forecast.
The question is stated as delivery of a "S-300 or S-400 missile system." A "system" requires all the major operational components to be delivered (search radar, targeting radar, missile launcher, command post, etc.). Regarding hiding the system, while I agree that generally you don't want to give away the exact location of your military assets, it is important to credibly signal your enemies if you expect to deter them. Most of the Iranian comments to this point are probably inward directed, to create a sense of strength in the aftermath of the nuclear deal with the West. Outward directed statements (to Israel) will come when the system is actually functioning.
The Internets rule: https://twitter.com/wilte/status/358689153933774848
Now in one place: https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2015/12/29/champs-know-and-the-gjp-report/
WHEW! I kept coming up with "DRINK PEPSI®" and "MARY JANE", but I knew those couldn't be right.
@ravel @kahneman Please don't take that "superforecaster [TM] label too seriously. As best as I can tell, reading the published accounts of GJP in refereed publications, the two primary factors in winning this designation were putting in time and getting some sort of feedback from others who put in time. All the rest, IMHO, is ex post facto analysis. I recall that it was after I'd been in the top 1% for some time that the Powers That Be queried me about openmindedness etc. How do we know the openmindedness was a cause of success, a result of striving for success and getting Brier score feedback, or both? I'm hoping the next four years of planned research under CREATE could help illuminate this.
Are any of you wondering why I added @kahneman here? Somebody signed up under the name Daniel Kahneman. Is that perhaps the Daniel Kahneman of Nobel Prize fame? He has written eloquently about his struggles as a young psychologist with the false efficacy syndrome. That's what has me wondering about the superforecaster designation. Yeah, I got one, so how fun to think I'm special. What if I'm not? What if anyone with similar education and intelligence, of whom there must be many millions, could do as well or better under the right conditions? What if a billion people, or more, have this potential? Inquiring minds want to know.
P.S. Here's the location of the latest report on the last two seasons of GJP:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/281765164_Distilling_the_Wisdom_of_Crowds_Prediction_Markets_versus_Prediction_Polls
Hunhh. I wanted to upvote @Heffalump, but apparently I am Heffalump now. I feel....strange.....
http://cdn.meme.am/instances/59629967.jpg
@000 last night, one of my comments had the "upvoted" button on it, suggesting that I had upvoted myself, but I can't seem to make a habit of it, yet...time to play with cookies, and maybe some well-placed semicolons...
@cmeinel, well, if you look at the first Tetlock training video under Training, you will see that he begins his series by thanking Daniel Kahneman for all their collaboration, and Daniel Kahneman introduces himself as a psychologist, as they go around the table, along with Robert Axelrod and others, several of whom are "players" here, facilitating and doing what psychologists and analysts do, probe the rats. :)
http://edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-i
@Heffalump Re: this long reported, still unfixed bug whereby we could screw up other people's comments: consider databases of SQL injection attacks, for purposes of beta testing only, of course.
@ravel We're rats in a cage?
Regarding this superforecasting business, here's the final report by the top competitor to GJP, SciCast Predict: http://blog.scicast.org/download/scicast-final-report-public/
Bottom line: in their final year, using the market prediction approach, they were achieving results comparable to GJP4 but without this business of identifying superduperforecasters and putting them/us into special groups to share info, analyses.
I think it's bad enough that it's an open secret that several/many of us scrape the site with regularity. I'm not going to do basic script-kiddie/JS/SQL hacking without some sort of mandate.