Welcome to the Citadel International Equities Superforecasting Challenge!
The questions currently featured in the Challenge are:
1) Before 31 May 2023, will a NATO member state publicly accuse Russia of using a chemical or biological weapon in Ukraine?
2) What will be China's annual GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?
3) What will be the US annual real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2023?
4) Will the unadjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) value for coffee in April 2023 be higher than it was in February 2023?
5) How many subscribers will Netflix report for the first quarter of 2023?
6) What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 19 May 2023?
7) Will the Chinese government publicly announce that it has approved the use of a foreign mRNA COVID-19 vaccine for use among its citizens in the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 31 May 2023?
8) What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 26 May 2023?
9) What will be the price of bitcoin on 23 May 2023?
10) What will be the US domestic box office gross for "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" between and including 5 May 2023 and 29 May 2023, according to Box Office Mojo?
11) Will real GDP for the European Union in the first quarter of 2023 be higher than it was in the fourth quarter of 2022?
12) What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for April 2023?
13) What will be the US national average price of a gallon of gasoline on 15 May 2023, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)?
14) What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 24 May 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?
15) Which team will be at the top of the English Premier League as of the end of 6 May 2023?
16) What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 19 May 2023?
17) What will be the 3-month moving average of median wage growth for "Paid hourly" workers in April 2023?
18) What will be the closing value of the euro to US dollar exchange rate on 26 May 2023?
19) How many new Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) will be registered in the UK in April 2023, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT)?
20) Will the European Central Bank (ECB) announce a change to the "Fixed rate" for its "Main refinance operations" interest rate at its next scheduled monetary policy meeting?
21) What will be the closing value of the US dollar to Japanese yen exchange rate on 31 May 2023?
22) What will be the closing value for the US dollar to Turkish lira exchange rate on 31 May 2023?
23) What will be the annual percentage change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in April 2023?
24) How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in May 2023?
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