The Mack Institute asks
Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, how many reports of traffic accidents involving an autonomous vehicle will the California Department of Motor Vehicles receive?
Started
Nov 16, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2020 07:59AM UTC
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Outcome will be determined by California DMV data. Multiple companies have been approved to test autonomous vehicles on public roads in California (CA DMV, CA DMV, PLoS One). This question will be suspended on 31 December 2019 and closed based on reports listed on 17 January 2020 to allow reports covering late December to be included.
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The question closed "Between 95 and 115, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 55 | 0% | |
| Between 55 and 75, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 75 but less than 95 | 0% | |
| Between 95 and 115, inclusive | 100% | |
| More than 115 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 221 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 824 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
