The Economist asks
Between 30 November 2018 and 30 September 2019, which country will next land on the moon?
Started
Nov 30, 2018 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 02, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 02, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Challenges
While a race to Mars dominates most space exploration news, some countries are eyeing a return to the moon (The Economist, The Conversation). In 2013, China became the third country to land on the moon, the first since the 1970s, and they hope to return in December 2018 (Science News, Science News). Meanwhile, India and Israel are also both looking to land on the moon in 2019 (Space.com,The Jewish News of Northern California). Crashes and impacts will not count (e.g. Universe Today, NASA). Landings by any organization from China, India, or Israel (e.g., governmental, private, non-profit) will count.
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The question closed as a) China, with a closing date 2 January 2019 (NY Times). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
The question closed as a) China, with a closing date 2 January 2019 (NY Times). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
China | 89% | |
India | 2% | |
Israel | 1% | |
Another country | 0% | |
No country will land on the moon in this timeframe | 8% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 192 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
Number of Forecasts | 329 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |