Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?
Started
Jan 05, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Challenges
This question was closed a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. There were 361,678 arrivals by sea in 2016 (UNHCR).
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Europe continues to face a refugee crisis, with over one million refugees and migrants having arrived by sea in 2015 (NY Times, International Organization for Migration, BBC). Question will be resolved using the data available on UNHCR's Emergency Response Page for the Mediterranean (UNHCR). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2016 and will close once the data for 2016 are released. Recommended Questions Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016? Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017? Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS? Updated on 4/18/16: The UNHCR link was updated from http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.html to http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php.
Europe continues to face a refugee crisis, with over one million refugees and migrants having arrived by sea in 2015 (NY Times, International Organization for Migration, BBC). Question will be resolved using the data available on UNHCR's Emergency Response Page for the Mediterranean (UNHCR). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2016 and will close once the data for 2016 are released. Recommended Questions Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016? Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be President of Syria before 1 March 2017? Before 1 August 2016, will any NATO members invoke Article 4 or Article 5 in response to actions taken by ISIS? Updated on 4/18/16: The UNHCR link was updated from http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.html to http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 0% | |
No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 690 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
Number of Forecasts | 2909 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |