How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?
Started
Jan 12, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2016 06:59AM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2016 06:59AM UTC
Sign up and enter your own forecast, to compete in The Economist's World in 2016 Challenge!
Europe is experiencing the largest influx of migrants and refugees since the Second World War (The World in 2016), including an increasingly large numbers of Eritreans (CFR). Eurostat tracks first-time asylum applications: see the Eritrea row in Table 1 "First time asylum applicants in the EU-28 by citizenship, Q3 2014 – Q3 2015" at Eurostat. Question will be suspended on 31 March 2016 and closed when the official data are released, typically in June.
This question will be scored using the ordered categorial scoring rule. For more information, see the FAQ.
Recommended Questions
Who will win Uganda's next presidential election?
Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016?
When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 10,000 | 89% | |
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive | 10% | |
More than 15,000 | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 365 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
Number of Forecasts | 851 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |