How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?

Started Jan 12, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2016 06:59AM UTC

Sign up and enter your own forecast, to compete in The Economist's World in 2016 Challenge! Europe is experiencing the largest influx of migrants and refugees since the Second World War (The World in 2016), including an increasingly large numbers of Eritreans (CFR). Eurostat tracks first-time asylum applications: see the Eritrea row in Table 1 "First time asylum applicants in the EU-28 by citizenship, Q3 2014 – Q3 2015" at Eurostat. Question will be suspended on 31 March 2016 and closed when the official data are released, typically in June. This question will be scored using the ordered categorial scoring rule. For more information, see the FAQ. Recommended Questions Who will win Uganda's next presidential election? Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016? When will Germany announce that it is limiting the total number of asylum seekers or refugees that it will accept?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 10,000 89%
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive 10%
More than 15,000 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 365
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 851
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.075079
2.
-0.074983
3.
-0.072985
4.
-0.072977
5.
-0.072674

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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