How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016?
Started
Jan 12, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2016 06:59AM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2016 06:59AM UTC
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Europe is experiencing the largest influx of migrants and refugees since the Second World War (The World in 2016), including an increasingly large numbers of Eritreans (CFR). Eurostat tracks first-time asylum applications: see the Eritrea row in Table 1 "First time asylum applicants in the EU-28 by citizenship, Q3 2014 – Q3 2015" at Eurostat. Question will be suspended on 31 March 2016 and closed when the official data are released, typically in June.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 10,000 | 89% | |
Between 10,000 and 15,000, inclusive | 10% | |
More than 15,000 | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 365 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 851 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |