Nesta asks
Between 3 May 2019 and 1 November 2019, which of the following will happen first in relation to the Brexit process?
Closed Oct 28, 2019 05:00PM UTC
After an initial extension to 12 April, Brexit has been postponed to 31 October, increasing uncertainty around what will happen next in the process (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46393399, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/39042/10-euco-art50-conclusions-en.pdf,https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887). For more on the November 2018 Withdrawal Agreement, please see: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46237012 and https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement_0.pdf.
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The question closed "The UK's Article 50 period will be extended beyond 31 October 2019" with a closing date of 28 October 2019 (Europa).
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| The UK will leave the EU with the November 2018 Withdrawal Agreement in place | 0% | |
| The UK will leave the EU with a new or renegotiated version of a Withdrawal Agreement in place | 9% | |
| The UK will leave the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement in place | 18% | |
| The UK will revoke Article 50 | 0% | |
| The UK's Article 50 period will be extended beyond 31 October 2019 | 55% | |
| The UK will set a date for a General Election | 18% | |
| The UK will set a date for a referendum on Brexit | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 1116 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 2703 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
