Nesta asks
How many cases of measles will there be in the U.S. in 2019?
Started
Jun 7, 2019 11:00PM
Closed Dec 29, 2019 07:59AM (5 years ago)
Closed Dec 29, 2019 07:59AM (5 years ago)
Tags
The U.S. is facing one of its worst measles outbreaks in decades (BBC, BBC, BBC, HHS, CNBC). There were 120 cases of measles in the US in 2017. This question will be resolved based on CDC data for 2019 as reported on 6 January 2020 (CDC).
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The question closed "Between 1,250 and 1,500, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 1,250 | 0% | |
| Between 1,250 and 1,500, inclusive | 99% | |
| More than 1,500 but less than 1,750 | 1% | |
| Between 1,750 and 2,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 2,000 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 748 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 180 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1409 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 526 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jul 8, 2019 11:00AM PDT (173 days before close, question was 15% complete)