Nesta asks
Between 14 June and 31 December 2019, will the World Health Organization confirm a case of Ebola outside the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda?
Closed Dec 30, 2019 07:59AM UTC
An ongoing outbreak of Ebola, a deadly hemorrhagic fever, began in 2018 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (BBC, World Health Organization). Concerns that the outbreak would spread beyond the DRC were realized with cases in Uganda (BBC, World Health Organization). Other than Uganda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo borders the following countries: Angola, Burundi, Central African Republic, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Zambia. An infected patient being transported to another country for treatment will not count towards resolution of this question.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2020.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, a case only in a country that borders the DRC other than Uganda | 6% | |
| Yes, a case only in a country that does not border the DRC | 0% | |
| Yes, both a case in a country that borders the DRC other than Uganda and a different case in a country that does not border the DRC | 1% | |
| No | 93% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 850 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1238 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
