Will the Republican candidate for president win the party's nomination on the first ballot, at the party's convention in July?
Started
Jan 21, 2016 03:50PM UTC
Closed Jul 18, 2016 06:59AM UTC
Closed Jul 18, 2016 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
Tags
This question was closed with the answer "Yes" on 20 July 2016 with an end date of 19 July 2016. On 19 July 2016, Donald Trump became the official nominee of the Republican party on the first vote (USA Today, CNN).
As the Republicans enter primary season, the nomination race remains tight and a brokered convention could be possible (Time, Washington Post). A candidate must receive the votes of 1,236 delegates (50%+1) in order to win the Republican party's nomination (GOP). Recommended Questions Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?
As the Republicans enter primary season, the nomination race remains tight and a brokered convention could be possible (Time, Washington Post). A candidate must receive the votes of 1,236 delegates (50%+1) in order to win the Republican party's nomination (GOP). Recommended Questions Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99.00% | |
| No | 1.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 1225 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 3850 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
