Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?
Started
Feb 2, 2016 06:00PM
Closed Apr 30, 2016 09:00PM (9 years ago)
Closed Apr 30, 2016 09:00PM (9 years ago)
Challenges
In late September 2015, the Colombian government and FARC publicly pledged to conclude a peace deal within six months (The Economist, BBC).
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | |
| No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 543 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 181 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1582 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 528 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Feb 29, 2016 2:07AM PST (61 days before close, question was 31% complete)