&nbspThe Early Warning Project asks

Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Ethiopia before 1 January 2017?

Started Feb 02, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 30, 2016 06:00PM UTC

For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s Definitions page. Ethiopia is one of the most repressive regimes in the world. In December 2015, security forces killed over 140 people protesting city development plans (BBC). The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identify Ethiopia as one of the top 20 countries with the greatest risk of an onset of state-led mass killing. Those forecasts do not assess the risk of mass killing by non-state groups, which would also produce a “yes” answer to this question. This question will be resolved by the Early Warning Project, in consultation with subject matter experts, using publicly available secondary sources. If the project determines that a new episode of mass killing has occurred, relevant evidence will be summarized in a post on EWP's blog. Recommended Question Who will win Uganda's next presidential election? How many Eritrean citizens will apply for asylum in Europe for the first time in the first quarter of 2016? This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 30 November 2016. The EWP assessed that Ethiopia experienced a new mass killing episode in 2016 (Early Warning Project). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 283
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 1352
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.614493
2.
-1.565917
3.
-1.54725
4.
-1.521438
5.
-1.512099

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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