When will Donald Trump cease to be president of the United States?
Started
Sep 11, 2019 05:00PM
Closed Jan 20, 2021 08:01AM (4 years ago)
Closed Jan 20, 2021 08:01AM (4 years ago)
Challenges
Tags
The next inauguration for president of the United States is scheduled for 20 January 2021 (National Archives).
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The question closed "On Inauguration Day 2021" with a closing date of 20 January 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before Inauguration Day 2021 | 0% | |
| On Inauguration Day 2021 | 100% | |
| After Inauguration Day 2021 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 2195 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 180 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 6725 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 526 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Mar 18, 2020 7:02AM PDT (308 days before close, question was 38% complete)