How many seats will United Russia win in September's Russian State Duma elections?
Started
Feb 02, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 18, 2016 06:59AM UTC
Closed Sep 18, 2016 06:59AM UTC
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Resolution: This question was closed on answer option a) "At least 2/3" with an end date of 18 September 2016. United Russia won 343 of the 450 seats in the Duma, giving them a super majority with roughly 76% of the seats (Bloomberg, Reuters, TASS Russian News Agency).
Elections for the State Duma, the lower house of Russia's national legislature, are currently scheduled for 18 September 2016 (Bloomberg, RT).
This question will be scored using the ordered categorial scoring rule. For more information, see the FAQ.
Clarification issued 5 July 2016: Question will be resolved based on Russia's official count of the seats held by United Russia after the elections. That count shows United Russia having 238 seats in the current Duma (Duma.gov.ru, Russia Votes, Reuters).
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Less than half | 0% | |
At least two-thirds of all seats | 20% | |
At least one-half but less than two-thirds | 80% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 241 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
Number of Forecasts | 1092 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |