This question was scored in error. There is no correct answer, and any scores assigned for forecasts on this question have now been revoked. We apologize for this error. This is an opinion question which will not be scored. The goal of this Challenge is to assess whether forecasting can have a moderating effect on polarizing debates. As such, we are asking you to track how your beliefs about the Iranian nuclear deal change over the course of the Challenge and we hope you will provide commentary on what is driving that change (e.g., exchanges with other forecasters, a particularly thought provoking op-ed, new developments). It would be particularly helpful if you re-engage on this thread when big events occur. Knowing what events shift opinions (and what events don't) will help us better understand the link between forecasting and opinion formation.