Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?
Started
Sep 01, 2015 04:37PM UTC
Closed Aug 10, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 10, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Tags
This question was closed with the answer "No" on 11 August 2016 with an end date of 10 August 2016. On August 10, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative reported the detection of two cases of wild poliovirus type one in the Borno state of Nigeria, with symptoms detected on 6 July 2016 and 13 July 2016 (Global Polio Eradication Initiative). Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacific time on 9 August 2016.
The last human wild poliovirus case in Africa was diagnosed in Somalia on 11 August 2014 (Washington Post, World Health Organization).
Question will be resolved using data from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative or the World Health Organization (Global Polio Eradication Initiative, World Health Organization).
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 90.00% | |
No | 10.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 328 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
Number of Forecasts | 1274 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |