After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Democratic candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Started
Feb 11, 2016 06:00PM
Closed Mar 1, 2016 07:59AM (9 years ago)
Closed Mar 1, 2016 07:59AM (9 years ago)
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Note: this is a probability question, asking for the top finisher, not a delegate share question!
Pledged delegates are those delegates whose votes are determined by the outcome of the primaries (Bustle). More than 10 states will hold Democratic primaries or caucuses on Super Tuesday, 1 March 2016 (HowStuffWorks, NBC News).
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After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Who will win the Democratic Party nomination for the US presidential election?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Hillary Clinton | 57% | |
| Bernie Sanders | 43% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 1750 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 181 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 2273 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 529 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Feb 11, 2016 10:08AM PST (18 days before close, question was 0% complete)