Nesta asks
How many of the following 10 marginal seats in the House of Commons will change parties in the upcoming 2019 UK elections?
Started
Nov 15, 2019 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 12, 2019 07:59AM UTC
Closed Dec 12, 2019 07:59AM UTC
Challenges
The 10 marginal seats relevant to the resolution of this question follow below (Guardian). For the purposes of this question, each seat is considered to be held by a party as listed.
Conservative Party marginal seats (3): Hastings and Rye; Richmond Park; Cheltenham
Scottish Nationalist Party marginal seats (1): North East Fife
Labour Party marginal seats (5): Canterbury; Workington; Bolsover; Kensington; Crewe and Nantwitch
Liberal Democrat Party marginal seats (1): Brecon and Radnorshire
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The question closed "7 or more" with a closing date of 12 December 2019.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| None | 0% | |
| 1 or 2 | 6% | |
| 3 or 4 | 39% | |
| 5 or 6 | 42% | |
| 7 or more | 13% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 170 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 188 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 260 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
