Will the Centers for Disease Control elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin?
Started
Feb 16, 2016 06:00PM
Closed Aug 5, 2016 06:59AM (9 years ago)
Closed Aug 5, 2016 06:59AM (9 years ago)
Challenges
This question was closed with the answer "No" on 9 August 2016 with an end date of 5 August 2016. The Olympics began on 5 August 2016 (NBC), at which time the CDC' s categorization of travel to Brazil was still "Alert Level 2" (CDC). Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59 PM Pacific time on 4 August 2016.
The CDC currently categorizes travel to South America, including Brazil, as "Alert Level 2," recommending travelers practice enhanced precautions. Elevation to "Warning Level 3" would include recommendations against non-essential travel (CDC 1, CDC 2, CDC 3). There has been concern over Zika's potential effects on the Olympics, which are scheduled to begin on 5 August 2016 (Huffington Post, Telegraph, Guardian).
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Yes | 1.00% | |
No | 99.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 454 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 181 | |
Number of Forecasts | 1254 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 528 |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Feb 16, 2016 5:38PM PST (170 days before close, question was 0% complete)