Will the Centers for Disease Control elevate their travel guidance for Brazil to Warning Level 3 due to the Zika virus before the Olympics begin?

Started Feb 16, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 05, 2016 06:59AM UTC

This question was closed with the answer "No" on 9 August 2016 with an end date of 5 August 2016. The Olympics began on 5 August 2016 (NBC), at which time the CDC' s categorization of travel to Brazil was still "Alert Level 2" (CDC). Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59 PM Pacific time on 4 August 2016. The CDC currently categorizes travel to South America, including Brazil, as "Alert Level 2," recommending travelers practice enhanced precautions. Elevation to "Warning Level 3" would include recommendations against non-essential travel (CDC 1, CDC 2, CDC 3). There has been concern over Zika's potential effects on the Olympics, which are scheduled to begin on 5 August 2016 (Huffington Post, Telegraph, Guardian). Recommended Questions Will Africa remain free of the wild poliovirus through 31 December 2016?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 454
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 1254
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.014227
2.
-0.014227
3.
-0.013946
4.
-0.013848
5.
-0.013723

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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