Will China conduct bilateral military exercises with either Iran or Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2016?

Started Feb 16, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2016 05:00PM UTC

This question was closed on option D ('No') with a closing date of 30 September 2016. Bilateral military exercises could include field exercises involving naval, air, or ground forces. Table-top exercises, war games, or simulations would not suffice to resolve the question. Increasing tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia have complicated diplomatic efforts for Beijing, which is seeking to tighten diplomatic and military ties with both nations (World Politics Review, CNBC, The Diplomat). Recommended Questions Will Iran's President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016? Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016? Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, with only Iran 0%
Yes, with both 0%
Yes, with only Saudi Arabia 0%
No 100%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 577
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 1576
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.010176
2.
-0.010176
3.
-0.010028
4.
-0.010022
5.
-0.009976

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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