The Monkey Cage asks
(Conditional) If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, which party will win the U.S. presidential election?
Started
Feb 24, 2016 10:25PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Challenges
Tags
This question was closed with the correct answer 'Republican' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, won the 2016 presidential election on November 8. (NY Times)
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Sign up and enter your own forecast, if you're here for The Monkey Cage Challenge! For more information on the presidential election, see Washington Post. This is a conditional question: Assume that Trump is the Republican nominee and make your forecasts on the outcome of the overall election. If Trump ultimately fails to win the nomination, this question will be voided. Recommended Questions Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Sign up and enter your own forecast, if you're here for The Monkey Cage Challenge! For more information on the presidential election, see Washington Post. This is a conditional question: Assume that Trump is the Republican nominee and make your forecasts on the outcome of the overall election. If Trump ultimately fails to win the nomination, this question will be voided. Recommended Questions Who will win the Republican Party nomination for the US presidential election? Who will win the 2016 US presidential election? After the Super Tuesday primaries, which Republican candidate will have won the most pledged delegates?
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Republican | 15% | |
Other | 0% | |
Democrat | 85% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 1864 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
Number of Forecasts | 5613 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |