Fareed Zakaria GPS asks:
Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2020 United States presidential election also win the electoral college?
Started
Jan 17, 2020 09:00PM
Closed Nov 3, 2020 07:00PM (4 years ago)
Closed Nov 3, 2020 07:00PM (4 years ago)
For more information on the the popular vote and the electoral college see: (Archives.gov, Ballotpedia, Archives.gov).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 3 November 2020.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 90.00% | |
| No | 10.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 2537 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 180 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 4206 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 527 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jan 17, 2020 1:00PM PST (291 days before close, question was 0% complete)