Fareed Zakaria GPS asks:
Will Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó be detained or arrested by Venezuelan authorities before 1 January 2021?
Started
Jan 17, 2020 09:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags
Guaidó and his allies continue to face pressure from the Maduro government, including a threat by Venezuelan prosecutors to arrest Guaidó for "high treason" (Yahoo, Deutsche Welle, CBC). The duration of a detention or arrest is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.00% | |
| No | 99.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 1098 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 191 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1872 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 550 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
