Fareed Zakaria GPS asks:
Will Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó be detained or arrested by Venezuelan authorities before 1 January 2021?
Started
Jan 17, 2020 09:00PM
Closed Jan 1, 2021 08:01AM (4 years ago)
Closed Jan 1, 2021 08:01AM (4 years ago)
Challenges
Tags
Guaidó and his allies continue to face pressure from the Maduro government, including a threat by Venezuelan prosecutors to arrest Guaidó for "high treason" (Yahoo, Deutsche Welle, CBC). The duration of a detention or arrest is immaterial to the resolution of this question.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.00% | |
| No | 99.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 1098 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 180 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1872 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 526 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jan 19, 2020 10:29PM PST (348 days before close, question was 1% complete)