Fareed Zakaria GPS and Private Superforecasting Workshop ask:
How many total cases of Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will have been reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of 20 March 2020?
Closed Mar 20, 2020 06:59AM UTC
The Wuhan coronavirus outbreak in China and elsewhere has caused alarm all around the globe (CNN, BBC). As of 27 January 2020, the WHO has reported 2,798 confirmed cases globally (WHO). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by WHO for 20 March 2020 and inclusive of cases reported before this question's launch (WHO).
NOTE 17 February 2020: As WHO has begun reporting both "laboratory-confirmed" and "clinically diagnosed" cases in their reporting, GJO will include both for so long as WHO reports the figures. See bullet point #2 under Highlights in the 17 February Situation Report.
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The question closed "More than 200,000" with a closing date of 19 March 2020 (WHO).
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 10,000 | 0% | |
| Between 10,000 and 25,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 25,000 but less than 100,000 | 0% | |
| Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 200,000 | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 831 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 3268 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
