Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru's upcoming presidential election?
Started
Mar 08, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 05, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 05, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Challenges
UPDATE 6/7/16: We have re-opened the question on Peru's election to allow forecasters to continue to discuss and engage with each other as the vote count continues. However, as with other election questions, we will only score forecasts made prior to the election: in this case forecasts made through the end of 4 June 16.
Peru is scheduled to hold general elections on April 10. Term limits bar incumbent president Ollanta Humala from running for that post again, and polls have identified Keiko Fujimori as the front-runner (Voice of America, Reuters). If no candidate receives at least 50 percent of the vote in the first round, a runoff will be held in June, in which case the end date of the question will be extended.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 80.00% | |
No | 20.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 269 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 1484 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |