Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania, or Uganda in 2020?
Started
Mar 13, 2020 05:00PM
Closed Jan 1, 2021 08:01AM (4 years ago)
Closed Jan 1, 2021 08:01AM (4 years ago)
Challenges
The spread of desert locusts in East Africa is testing an already food-insecure region (BBC, Foreign Policy, Food and Agriculture Organization). For general information on how famines are declared, see: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, NPR.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | |
| No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 131 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 180 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 634 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 527 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Aug 1, 2020 2:02AM PDT (153 days before close, question was 48% complete)