Will the book “Superforecasting" (2015) be on the New York Times Bestseller's list by the end of October?
Started
Sep 01, 2015 05:44PM UTC
Closed Oct 08, 2015 09:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 08, 2015 09:00PM UTC
Challenges
Tags
The question will use any of the categories listed on the best sellers website, www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books , and the corresponding links for these categories. For example, we will consider the 20 titles listed from the "Hardcover nonfiction" link and the 15 titles from the "E-book nonfiction" link.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35.50% | |
| No | 64.50% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 296 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 540 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
