Will Iran agree to cap its oil output before 1 July 2016?

Started Mar 15, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2016 06:59AM UTC

This question resolved on 30 June 2016: Iran rejected the oil output cap discussed by OPEC at its last meeting earlier this month and has only ramped up its exports (The Guardian, Wall Street Journal). Agreeing to cap oil output as part of a larger OPEC agreement on output would suffice. Talks continue on the widening of an agreement to freeze output at January levels struck by OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Qatar plus non-member Russia last month; some observers believe Iran must commit to capping or cutting its own production for the agreement to hold (Reuters 1, Bloomberg, , Reuters 2, Financial Times). Recommended Questions Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016? Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016? Will the closing spot price for a barrel of Brent crude oil dip below $20.00 before 1 May 2016?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 602
Average for questions older than 6 months: 191
Number of Forecasts 1382
Average for questions older than 6 months: 550
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.00185
2.
-0.00185
3.
-0.00185
4.
-0.00185
5.
-0.00185

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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