In 2016 will the Permanent Court of Arbitration rule that China's "nine-dash line" is contrary to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)?

Started Mar 22, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 12, 2016 02:12PM UTC

This question was closed with the answer "yes" on 12 July 2016. The Hague released a summary of their findings, stating that "there was no legal basis for China to claim historic rights to resources within the sea areas falling within the 'nine-dash line'" (Press Release). For additional coverage of the issue see: BBC, NY Times, CNN. In 2013, the Philippines started an international legal process aimed at invalidating some of China's territorial claims in the South China Sea, including its "nine-dash line" claim (Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, The National Interest). The Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague determined in 2015 that it has jurisdiction over the issue, and it is expected to issue rulings on the case in June 2016 (The Diplomat, The Hague). Recommended Questions Will China officially declare an Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 October 2016? Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea region involving China's and another country's national military forces or law enforcement personnel before 1 January 2017?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 99.00%
No 1.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 216
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 697
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.021102
2.
-0.021102
3.
-0.021102
4.
-0.021102

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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