The Economist asks:
Will China's Three Gorges Dam fail before 1 October 2020?
Started
Jul 22, 2020 05:00PM
Closed Oct 1, 2020 07:01AM (4 years ago)
Closed Oct 1, 2020 07:01AM (4 years ago)
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Tags
Recent flooding has devastated large areas of China, drawing attention to the safety and efficacy of the massive Three Gorges Dam (Economist, The Interpreter, Reuters). For the purposes of this question, a failure would be the actual "sudden, rapid, and uncontrolled release of impounded water" (U.S. Forest Service).
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NOTE 24 August 2020: Mere use of the dam spillway alone would not count.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2020.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | |
| No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 341 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 180 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 692 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 527 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jul 22, 2020 10:00AM PDT (71 days before close, question was 0% complete)