&nbspThe Mack Institute asks

Will the 2016 industry-wide average cost of Li-on batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles be less than $300 per kWh?

Started Apr 22, 2016 02:37AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2017 07:59AM UTC

This question was closed as "yes" with an end date of 31 December 2016 (The Mack Institute).
Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines. A study published in Nature Climate Change in 2015 analyzed the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2014 based on estimates from over 80 different publicly-available data sources. This study calculated that industry-wide average cost of lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery packs declined by approximately 14% annually between 2007 and 2014, from more than US $1,000 per kWh in 2007 to around US $410 per kWh in 2014 (Nature). If this trend holds through 2016, the industry-wide average cost would be about $300 per kWh. The Mack Institute will resolve this question by using the same methodology as the Nature Climate Change article. For more information on cost estimates from that article and the methodology used to estimate those costs see (Mack) or the pre-publication version of the article. An explanation of the resolution, along with sources, will be posted on (Mack). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 87.00%
No 13.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 242
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 689
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.276072
2.
-0.273881
3.
-0.272935
4.
-0.270825
5.
-0.258111

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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