 The Early Warning Project asks
Will the Democratic Republic of the Congo hold presidential elections in 2016?
Started
May 3, 2016 05:00PM
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM (8 years ago)
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM (8 years ago)
Challenges
This question was closed as "No" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The elections were postponed until 2018 (The Guardian, Deutsche Welle).
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The Democratic Republic of the Congo is scheduled to hold presidential and legislative elections in November 2016. Incumbent President Joseph Kabila is supposed to relinquish that office after two elected terms, but Kabila is seeking to amend the constitution to allow himself to stand for a third term, and the government has hinted that elections may be delayed (Washington Post, Reuters, Inside Sources). Meanwhile, several leading opposition parties have endorsed Moise Katumbi as their candidate for president (Reuters). Recommended Questions: How many civilian fatalities will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016? Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?
The Democratic Republic of the Congo is scheduled to hold presidential and legislative elections in November 2016. Incumbent President Joseph Kabila is supposed to relinquish that office after two elected terms, but Kabila is seeking to amend the constitution to allow himself to stand for a third term, and the government has hinted that elections may be delayed (Washington Post, Reuters, Inside Sources). Meanwhile, several leading opposition parties have endorsed Moise Katumbi as their candidate for president (Reuters). Recommended Questions: How many civilian fatalities will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016? Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017?
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, and Joseph Kabila Kabange will win | 0% | |
| Yes, and Moise Katumbi Chapwe will win | 0% | |
| Yes, but neither Kabila nor Katumbi will win | 0% | |
| No | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 156 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 181 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 770 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 528 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - May 3, 2016 11:00AM PDT (242 days before close, question was 0% complete)