The Economist asks:
When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?
Started
Jan 15, 2021 06:00PM
Closed Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM (4 years ago)
Closed Sep 18, 2021 07:01AM (4 years ago)
The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 (Economist, Dutch News, BBC, houseofrepresentatives.nl). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed (Reuters). A caretaker government would not count.
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The question closed "Not before 18 September 2021" with a closing date of 18 September 2021.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021 | 0% | |
| Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021 | 0% | |
| Not before 18 September 2021 | 100% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 132 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 180 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 887 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 526 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jul 31, 2021 7:25AM PDT (49 days before close, question was 80% complete)