The Early Warning Project asks
How many civilian fatalities will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016?
Started
May 03, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC
Challenges
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa in near-real time (ACLED). The answer to this question will be obtained by summing the numbers in the 'FATALITIES' field for ACLED records in which 1) 'COUNTRY' is "Democratic Republic of the Congo", 2) 'EVENT_DATE' is between May 1 and December 31, 2016 (inclusive), and 3) either a) 'EVENT_TYPE' is "Violence against civilians" or b) 'EVENT_TYPE' is "Remote violence" and 'ACTOR2' is "Civilians (Democratic Republic of the Congo)." Forecasting will be suspended at 11:59 PM Pacific Time on 31 December 2016. ACLED updates weekly, but the updates sometimes include additions or revisions to prior data, so the question will not be resolved until the end of January 2017.
Recommended Questions:
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This question was closed as a "350-750, inclusive" with an end date of 31 December 2016. ACLED recorded 499 civilian fatalities in the DRC between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016 (ACLED).
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Fewer than 350 | 0% | |
350-750, inclusive | 100% | |
More than 750 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 115 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 847 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |