&nbspThe Early Warning Project asks

How many civilian fatalities will ACLED record in the Democratic Republic of the Congo between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016?

Started May 03, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 31, 2016 06:00PM UTC

The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa in near-real time (ACLED). The answer to this question will be obtained by summing the numbers in the 'FATALITIES' field for ACLED records in which 1) 'COUNTRY' is "Democratic Republic of the Congo", 2) 'EVENT_DATE' is between May 1 and December 31, 2016 (inclusive), and 3) either a) 'EVENT_TYPE' is "Violence against civilians" or b) 'EVENT_TYPE' is "Remote violence" and 'ACTOR2' is "Civilians (Democratic Republic of the Congo)." Forecasting will be suspended at 11:59 PM Pacific Time on 31 December 2016. ACLED updates weekly, but the updates sometimes include additions or revisions to prior data, so the question will not be resolved until the end of January 2017. Recommended Questions: Will the Democratic Republic of the Congo hold presidential elections in 2016? Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Democratic Republic of Congo before 1 January 2017? This question was closed as a "350-750, inclusive" with an end date of 31 December 2016. ACLED recorded 499 civilian fatalities in the DRC between 1 May 2016 and 31 December 2016 (ACLED). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 350 0%
350-750, inclusive 100%
More than 750 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 115
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 847
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.12855
2.
-0.112483
3.
-0.099772
4.
-0.095047
5.
-0.094321

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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