Private Superforecasting Workshop and erikbays ask:
Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?
Started
Feb 12, 2021 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium (Atlantic Council, BBC, Washington Post, Federation of American Scientists).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
NOTE 14 June 2021: The US rejoining the JCPOA under revised terms would count.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | |
No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 193 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 1083 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 543 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |