Will Afghanistan's parliamentary elections be held as scheduled on 15 October 2016?

Started May 03, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 16, 2016 05:00PM UTC

This question was closed on option b ('No') on 16 October, 2016. The absence of reporting on the Lower House/Wolesi Jirga elections scheduled for 15 October after an Independent Election Commission press release foreboding a possible delay indicates that no elections were in fact held on 15 October. Elections for Afghanistan's lower house of parliament have been scheduled for 15 October 2016 (The Diplomat, Afghanistan Analysts Network, NY Times). Recommended Questions: Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru's upcoming presidential election? Will a majority of voters in Britain's upcoming referendum elect to remain in the European Union? How many seats will United Russia win in September's Russian State Duma elections?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 176
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 884
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.048646
2.
-0.047176
3.
-0.045559
4.
-0.045546
5.
-0.04448

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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