When will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement?

Started May 06, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 24, 2016 05:00PM UTC

On 24 August 2016 the government of Colombia and the FARC signed a peace agreement, ending more than five decades of war (BBC, Reuters). At that time, the question was closed on option "b) Between 1 July 2016 and 30 September 2016, inclusive." Scores were calculated through the end of 23 August 2016. Clarification issued 8/15/16: In order to resolve this question, the two parties must agree on the terms of a deal. Ratification or the outcome of the plebiscite are not necessary to resolve this question. Negotiations continue despite a September 2015 pledge by the Colombian government and FARC to conclude a peace deal within six months (The Guardian, BBC, Colombia Reports). Recommended Questions Will Keiko Fujimori win Peru's upcoming presidential election? Will Venezuela or its state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA) default on any of its foreign debt before 1 February 2017? In 2016 will the Permanent Court of Arbitration rule that China's "nine-dash line" is contrary to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Between 1 January 2017 and 28 February 2017, inclusive 4%
Between 1 October 2016 and 31 December 2016, inclusive 23%
Before 1 July 2016 0%
Between 1 July 2016 and 30 September 2016, inclusive 72%
Not before 1 March 2017 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 104
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 671
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.2561
2.
-0.231541
3.
-0.227092
4.
-0.213915
5.
-0.213308

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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